Pretend that you are playing in a sit and go tournament. The buy in is ten dollar and first place gets $45, second place gets $27, and third place gets $18. (To learn more about sitandgo, check out this article on pot odds poker.)
Now imagine that you are fortunate enough to be one of the last 4 players remaining. Not only that, you have the second biggest chip stake at 2,000 chips. The chip leader has 7,000 chips. And the other two players have 10 chips each.
Consider this scenario. The blinds are 50/100 and you happen to be in the big blind and the chip leader is in the small blind.
Both of the short stacks fold leaving just you and the chip leader. Much to your dismay, the chip leader goes all in from the small blind.
Fortunately for you, as he pushes in his chip stack, the clumsy idiot accidentally turns over his cards and you see that he only has a measly 72 offsuit.
You on the other hand is dealt Ace King suited. The odds say that you will win against his hand roughly 70 percent of the time. If you wanted to win this tournament, then this is a great opportunity.
Would this be a good call?
The answer is no. The best play here is to fold. Although calling might give you the best chance of winning the SNG it will cost you money in the long run.
Yep, you know you have the best hand, but you still need to fold.
Let me explain.
Since the other 2 players are so short stacked, you are pretty much guaranteed to finish second and win the $27.
So by folding, you make an automatic profit of $27 and still have a chance to fight for 1st place.
By calling the chip leader's shove you are only risking that $27 and giving yourself a 30% chance to get knocked out and win nothing. The benefit of having the best hand and having a chance to double your chip stack is actually very slight and is not nearly enough to compensate for the risk that you are taking.
There is actually solid math behind this reasoning that can prove why calling is such a bad idea.
Now imagine that you are fortunate enough to be one of the last 4 players remaining. Not only that, you have the second biggest chip stake at 2,000 chips. The chip leader has 7,000 chips. And the other two players have 10 chips each.
Consider this scenario. The blinds are 50/100 and you happen to be in the big blind and the chip leader is in the small blind.
Both of the short stacks fold leaving just you and the chip leader. Much to your dismay, the chip leader goes all in from the small blind.
Fortunately for you, as he pushes in his chip stack, the clumsy idiot accidentally turns over his cards and you see that he only has a measly 72 offsuit.
You on the other hand is dealt Ace King suited. The odds say that you will win against his hand roughly 70 percent of the time. If you wanted to win this tournament, then this is a great opportunity.
Would this be a good call?
The answer is no. The best play here is to fold. Although calling might give you the best chance of winning the SNG it will cost you money in the long run.
Yep, you know you have the best hand, but you still need to fold.
Let me explain.
Since the other 2 players are so short stacked, you are pretty much guaranteed to finish second and win the $27.
So by folding, you make an automatic profit of $27 and still have a chance to fight for 1st place.
By calling the chip leader's shove you are only risking that $27 and giving yourself a 30% chance to get knocked out and win nothing. The benefit of having the best hand and having a chance to double your chip stack is actually very slight and is not nearly enough to compensate for the risk that you are taking.
There is actually solid math behind this reasoning that can prove why calling is such a bad idea.
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