Saturday 11 February 2012

Betting College Basketball: What to Look For

By Kyle Parker


As soon as the Super Bowl is finished, focus in the sports world shifts to basketball, the NCAA in particular. So, now is a good time to go over a few things to keep your eye on when betting college basketball. If you want to be successful handicapping college ball, you have to go a little deeper than just record and points scored. Sports Center and other broadcasts on TV like to give exciting highlights, but you have to dig a bit deeper for some of the most important information. Highlights of dunks and 3 pointers are more appealing to the general public, but are generally of little use to serious bettors.

We will talk about some of the less obvious stats and information to look for when betting college basketball. Knowing what to look for can be the difference in a losing season and one that is highly profitable.

Field goal percentage allowed is one of the most important things you can know when betting college basketball. How a team protects against scoring in the paint and against perimeter shooting is crucial to know. This will also tie in with another factor we will discuss shortly, which is ball control. The better a team controls the ball, the less time they have to play defense. And if a team can limit the amount of shots their opponent is able to take, they are already at an advantage.
Let's take a little more of a look at ball control and how turnover percentage fits into this discussion. Low turnover percentage is a big key to controlling the ball and keeping it away from the other team. If your team can keep it away from their opponent, they have fewer shots to defend against. With ball control a team is able to control the tempo of the game. It also gives them time to move around and get the open shot. Lack of ball control leads to rushed shots. One of the most important numbers you will be looking for is assist to turnover ratio. The more your offense has the ball means less time the defense has to work defending shots.

Lastly, it is important to know how to interpret these numbers. And this is where strength of schedule comes in. When you are looking at these statistics, you need to know what caliber of opponent your teams have faced. It is hard to take too much from the pre-conference schedule of games. Most schools schedule weak teams at this time to pad their record heading into conference play. Once teams have played within their conference or ranked teams, these numbers are more meaningful. Don't overlook what kind of competition has been played against previously.

The last statistic we will talk about actually applies to both ball control and field goal percentage allowed. When betting college basketball be sure and factor in the competition of a team you are handicapping. Who has the team you are handicapping played against? It matters whether they have played ranked and/or tough opponents or if they have played a creampuff schedule. It is preferable to look at stats from a bit later in the season. Lots of schools pad their pre-conference schedule with fairly weak teams.

These are a few factors that are unique to betting college basketball. One last thing to throw in is a team's motivation. Teams seem to play harder against stronger opponents. Teams will play harder in conference play and when they are the underdog. Always take a look at big underdogs when it comes to NCAA hoops.




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